Originally appeared on The Morning
By Dhananath Fernando
Minister of Finance Basil Rajapaksa, moving two important bills in Parliament, recited a poem in Sinhala literature, which is also a proverb, to explain the sorry state of our economy. He compared Sri Lanka’s economy to a man in the jungle trying to rescue himself from three life-threatening challenges.
Firstly, a furious wild elephant, similar to our mounting debt obligations. Secondly, to avoid the elephant, the man attempts to hide in a pit, but before he jumps into the pit, he realises that there is a cobra in it. So instead of jumping, the man then decides to hang onto the roots of a tree that lies above the pit as an alternative. The cobra in the bottom of the pit is similar to our Balance of Payment (BOP) crisis. Our importers and exporters are in big trouble, having difficulties opening Letters of Credit (LCs) due to forex shortages, and currency is depreciating rapidly with attempts to keep interest rates artificially low by policymakers.
Then the man realises that one root he is holding onto is the tail of a venomous reptile. He now cannot release his grip on the tail as the reptile will bite back. So, the adventure of running away from the elephant waiting at the edge of the pit now has two more severe life-threatening risks. The Finance Minister’s analogy reflects that trying to avoid one problem without a proper estimation and analysis has now opened us to more vulnerabilities while the previous challenges remain as they are.
As the story goes, one tree root the man is holding in his other hand is attached to a bee honey nest. So when he tightens his grip, bee honey keeps dripping, and so he decides to indulge in some bee honey. While the man has three life threats from the elephant, the cobra, and the other reptile, he decides to enjoy the dripping bee honey for a moment.
The Sri Lankan economic crisis is exactly the same. At a moment in history where urgent, hard, and serious economic reforms are required to overcome the crisis in the midst of the global pandemic, some alternative policies such as self-sufficiency, Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), and import substitution have become sweet bee honey for some policymakers who really do not understand the gravity of the crisis.
Unfortunately, just as the man who attempted to jump to a pitfall without properly analysing the situation, some economic measures with little analysis are cornering us for a brewing crisis.
Fixing USD at Rs. 203
Attempting to fix our exchange rate at Rs. 203 against the USD to avoid currency depreciation is one such activity. Simply, it is a price control on US dollars. Every good or service with an economic value is naturally obliged to a demand and supply matrix. In other terms, there is no alternative to fix the price of a currency without someone intervening in the excess or shortage.
In the forex market, the Central Bank does not have adequate forex to intervene in markets any longer, with the mounting debt obligations. So it is natural that $ 1 for Rs. 203 is a complete misguidance where there is no USD in the market at that price. The downside of trying to fix the USD at an artificially lower price is the encouragement it would provide on more importers to open LCs, adding more pressure on banks as well as the USD.
“Imports” are incentivised at a lower rate than the market rate for the USD. Exporters, on the other hand, are discouraged to bring forex as they get a far less market rate if they bring USD to the market. As a result, exporters hold the USD as long as possible and many exporters maximise their offshore accounts, as it is very cost-effective and hassle-free. As such, banks’ forex market has now further dried up, with both importers and exporters falling into trouble. It is the same predicament faced by the man who tried to avoid an elephant and came across two more additional troubles.
Additionally, another restriction has been imposed on more than 600 HS codes where the full amount has to be paid upfront to open the LC. This move will directly impact micro, small, and medium-sized businesses that depend on imports in those categories. Consumers will have to experience higher prices and black markets in most of these product categories, and the quality of life will be affected drastically.
Concerns expressed by investors on property rights over seizing rice stocks
Recent raids carried out on rice mills in Polonnaruwa will worsen Sri Lanka’s image as a destination for investors. As previously written in this column, it is the lack of competition, along with political support, that leads to the creation of cartels in the rice milling industry. However, seizing private property of an individual undermines investor confidence – no investor will consider Sri Lanka if there is a fear that the government will take over their property rights.
This was the same point made by the President when he was questioned by Indian media in his very first international media interview about the Hambantota Port. Though his supporters claimed that the Hambantota Port will be taken back by China, the President mentioned that if we were to do it, it would completely provide a wrong message for the investor community. According to media reports, the Government is initiating a very important Selendiva project for investors (Hilton Colombo, Grand Hyatt, etc). However, property rights concerns will seriously erode attracting quality investors for the Selendiva project.
At the same time, exactly like the proverb in the speech by the Finance Minister, while we are in serious trouble on multiple fronts, ideological groups seem to be defending their ideology rather than finding solutions with pragmatism. Ideological groups are the same as the man who is focusing on bee honey dripping, by forgetting that we are already in a very serious situation. The narration created on self-sufficiency and import substitution are just an example.
The Finance Minister has to be objective and pragmatic instead of falling into ideological traps. Otherwise, he will be a victim of his own analogy and the proverb of the man who multiplied the problem by irrational decision-making.
The opinions expressed are the author’s own views. They may not necessarily reflect the views of the Advocata Institute or anyone affiliated with the institute.