SSCL

VAT, taxes and the real cost of government

By Dhananath Fernando

Originally appeared on The Morning

The recent amendments to the Value-Added Tax (VAT) have once again brought taxation into the national conversation.

Contrary to what many initially assumed, the VAT rate itself has not increased. What has changed is the VAT registration threshold, which has been reduced from Rs. 60 million to Rs. 36 million in annual turnover. As a result, many micro, small, and medium-sized businesses will now fall into the VAT net.

This has naturally triggered criticism that Sri Lanka is relying too heavily on indirect taxes instead of expanding direct taxation. That concern is understandable. Yet when comparing taxes, VAT remains one of the more reasonable forms of taxation despite its imperfections.

That does not mean VAT rates should keep increasing. It simply means that, compared to many other taxes imposed in Sri Lanka, VAT is economically less damaging and comparatively more transparent.

VAT is on the value added

The important principle behind VAT is that the tax is only charged on the value a business adds at each stage of production or distribution.

Take a bicycle manufacturer selling a bicycle for Rs. 10,000. With an 18% VAT, the final selling price becomes Rs. 11,800. The manufacturer collects Rs. 1,800 as VAT on behalf of the Inland Revenue Department (IRD).

However, the manufacturer may have already paid VAT on inputs used to produce the bicycle. Assume tyres, rims, and spokes cost Rs. 5,000 before VAT. With VAT included, the manufacturer pays Rs. 5,900 to suppliers. That means Rs. 900 has already been paid as VAT earlier in the supply chain.

When settling taxes with the IRD, the manufacturer only pays the balance Rs. 900 because the earlier VAT payment can be claimed back as an input credit. In simple terms, VAT is ultimately charged only on the additional value created by the manufacturer, which in this case is the increase from Rs. 5,000 to Rs. 10,000.

This is very different from taxes such as the Social Security Contribution Levy (SSCL), which creates a cascading effect. Under the SSCL, every stage of production pays tax without the ability to deduct what was paid earlier. The supplier pays it, the manufacturer pays it again, and eventually the tax compounds through the entire production chain.

That cascading effect quietly increases costs across the economy. Compared to such taxes, VAT is economically cleaner and less distortive.

Is it impacting the poor the most?

A common criticism against VAT is that it affects the poor disproportionately. The argument usually goes like this: if both a wealthy individual and a poor individual buy one kilogramme of dhal, they both pay the same VAT amount.

On the surface, that sounds unfair. But VAT is fundamentally a consumption tax. Those who consume more pay more. Wealthier households consume significantly more goods and services than poorer households and therefore contribute more VAT overall.

The real issue is not VAT alone. The heavier burden on poor households often comes from Sri Lanka’s complex web of import tariffs, para-tariffs, cess duties, Ports and Airports Development Levy (PAL), and Customs taxes that silently increase the prices of essential goods.

Take construction materials such as cement, steel, wall tiles, or floor tiles. These taxes raise the cost of housing, infrastructure, and business investment. Unlike VAT, these taxes become embedded in the full cost structure. Businesses then finance those inflated costs through expensive loans, which further compounds prices across the economy.

In many sectors, the real cost drivers are tariffs and para-tariffs rather than VAT itself. If policymakers genuinely want to reduce pressure on low-income families, tariff reform deserves far greater attention.

VAT is only charged when a transaction happens

Another reason VAT is comparatively more reasonable is that it is linked directly to transactions.

Unlike personal income tax, where the Government takes a portion of earnings before individuals even decide how to spend them, VAT is only paid when consumption takes place. In that sense, consumers still retain a degree of choice.

If someone decides not to purchase a product or service, no VAT is charged. That transaction-based structure makes VAT comparatively more transparent than many other forms of taxation.

Not charging VAT can also distort competition

High VAT thresholds can also create an uneven playing field between businesses.

Take the poultry industry. Poultry products sold through supermarkets are often subject to VAT, while products sold through informal wet markets may escape it altogether. As a result, supermarket prices appear higher, even when the businesses involved are complying fully with the tax system.

Yet many of these supermarket suppliers are also the companies maintaining hygiene standards, investing in large-scale production, and building systems compatible with export markets. When compliant businesses lose competitiveness because others remain outside the tax net, the incentive to reinvest and expand weakens.

A functioning tax system must also preserve neutrality. Taxes should not unfairly reward one group while penalising another.

That said, widening the tax net does not automatically justify high tax rates. Sri Lanka must also remain regionally competitive. Corporate taxes are already around 30%, while the highest personal income tax bracket stands at 36%.

If the country continues broadening the tax base, it becomes even more important to ensure overall tax rates remain competitive with global and regional standards.

Taxes alone cannot develop a country

No country has become prosperous purely through taxation. Taxes are necessary to fund public services, but economic growth is what ultimately lifts people out of poverty.

The uncomfortable reality is that as government expenditure continues to rise, governments will continuously search for ways to increase taxes, expand tax nets, or introduce new levies.

If Sri Lanka genuinely wants lower taxes in the long run, the conversation cannot only be about taxation. It must also be about government expenditure, efficiency, and fiscal discipline.

Without controlling expenditure, the country will remain trapped in a cycle where every fiscal problem eventually becomes a tax problem. That is the real conversation Sri Lanka needs to have.

Bracing for Trump’s tariff storm

By Dhananath Fernando

Originally appeared on the Morning

US President Donald Trump’s second term seems to be keeping all people around the world on their toes. The changes and policies, along with their implications, will be complicated, and we have to do our homework to gain an advantage or at least survive in this game.

The new Trump administration has suggested reciprocal tariffs, meaning the same tariff rates applied to each country that they charge for US products. 

Already, a 10% tariff is in effect for non-energy products from Canada and a 25% tariff on energy-related products from Canada. Additionally, a 25% tariff has been imposed on Mexican products, alongside an additional 10% tariff on Chinese products, bringing the total tariff on Chinese products to 21% (from around 11% previously).

SL’s opportunities and challenges

Before Sri Lanka gets affected by any reciprocal tariff, we first need to understand our total exports, including services. 

According to Harvard’s Atlas of Economic Complexity, we export about 21% to the United States. When it comes to apparel, about 40% of our apparel exports are destined for the US. 

Accordingly, the first line of impact for Sri Lanka would be potential consumption contraction in the US. With high tariffs even against Canada, China, and Mexico, as well as increased prices of essential products, the US consumer will likely reduce spending on non-essential items such as seasonal clothing. It is normal consumer behaviour to postpone purchasing decisions if expenditure on essentials like energy and rent increases.

The second line of impact has both positives and negatives. China and Mexico also supply apparel to the US. If relative prices of Sri Lankan apparel become lower following the 25% tariff for Mexico, we might gain an advantage. 

Similarly, we could become more competitive than China, which now faces an overall 21% tariff. Therefore, we must be cautious and prepared, recognising it is not just tariffs on Sri Lanka directly but also tariffs on others that can bring us opportunities or challenges.

The danger lies in the final stage if the US imposes reciprocal tariffs. The US would consider imposing the same tariffs for Harmonised System (HS) codes as the other trading country imposes on US products. 

There is discussion that the US might not only consider customs duties but also other tariff barriers and even non-tariff barriers. In that case, Port and Aviation Levy (PAL), Commodity Export Subsidy Scheme (CESS), Social Security Contribution Levy (SSCL), and Value-Added Tax (VAT) might be considered, according to some reports. 

This decision depends entirely on the Office of the US Trade Representative (USTR) defining ‘unfair trade practices.’ Media reports indicate that the USTR is expected to analyse all data and make a decision on reciprocal tariffs by 1 April.

We must recognise that Sri Lanka’s average tariff rates are significantly higher than those proposed by the US to China, Mexico, and Canada. A 25% tariff in Sri Lanka is considered low, as our effective tariff rates reach nearly 100%, and for vehicles with excise duties, it exceeds 200%. It is joked that even Trump would become confused if he learnt about Sri Lanka’s tariff structures and that he might learn a tough lesson from us.

In the context of reciprocal tariffs, price-sensitive product categories such as food, apparel, and rubber products may face higher prices in US markets. Ultimately, the real impact will depend on how other competing export markets are affected by US tariffs and non-tariff barriers and how these affect US consumption and global economic growth under new trade dynamics.

Meanwhile, Europe and other powerful countries are targeting the US with reciprocal tariffs, which could trigger global supply chains to consider relocation and create new incentive structures. This can present either an opportunity or a disaster for Sri Lanka.

Solutions

To attract new supply chains and assembly components, we must quickly work on basic factor market reforms. Having adequate land ready for industry and a flexible labour force with business consciousness is essential. Secondly, simplifying and lowering our tariff structure is critical, even though it might be somewhat late. 

Additionally, exploring exports towards East Asia and the Indian market is increasingly vital. Whether our US market shrinks or not, we should prepare to explore other markets, primarily India and East Asian countries. Strengthening foreign relationships, activating business chambers, and intensifying diplomatic missions to strengthen ties is necessary. 

Accelerating regional free trade agreements and conducting market sentiment research can help Sri Lankan entrepreneurs expand their exports. Fundamentally, economics never expires – even during trade wars or crises, strong economic fundamentals provide the best way to survive and thrive. We must move from hope to action.

Where did Sri Lanka export all products to in 2022?

Source: Harvard Atlas of Economic Complexity

Where did Sri Lanka export textiles to in 2022?

Source: Harvard Atlas of Economic Complexity