Originally appeared on The Morning
By Dhananath Fernando
We spent another year just debating so many economic issues without really getting anything substantial done.
During the last few days, the debate has been around the official reserves position of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL). So many questions have been raised on whether it can be used to service our debt or whether this is just a double account entry of the Chinese Yuan worth of $ 1.5 billion, which we secured many months ago. The reasonable answer is “we don’t know” until the CBSL makes the data available. The CBSL now says that our reserves are currently at $ 3.1 billion, but refuses to reveal the breakdown of how the country doubled its reserves. So much for transparency!
However, we all have to admit that the economic solutions implemented to overcome the crisis haven’t really worked. Rather, they have thrown the lower and middle-class Sri Lankans from the frying pans to the fire.
A self-sufficient economic model was proposed at the initial stages. Many economic experts including this column highlighted why a self-sufficient economic model is an expired concept in the 21st Century. Therefore, we must reiterate that the pursuit of self-sufficiency can completely isolate Sri Lanka from global supply chains. As a result, our trade balance will be adversely affected and will continue to be so, due to our lack of understanding of the simple balance of payments and the dependency of exports on imports. Further, there is the absence of incentive reforms.
A policy of strict import controls and price controls was imposed with the objective of boosting local production, sidelining the market forces. The result was shortages and long lines even for essentials such as liquid petroleum gas and milk powder. Another argument was brought in that the import controls can create a trade surplus. The past two years have proven fair and square that the direction of our policies is completely wrong. In the period of January-October 2021 imports rose by 26.5% and the overall trade balance grew by 34% to $ 6,498 million. This is while the strong performance of exports increased by 22%. All this happened against the backdrop of attempting to keep the interest rates artificially low and keeping the US dollar artificially fixed at around Rs. 200. This is one main reason for our US dollar shortage. Simply, the excess demand created by a loose monetary policy is the reason for there being excess demand for imports.
Afterwards, Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) was introduced as a panacea for all forex problems, claiming there is no connection between inflation and money supply. Today, inflation has risen to 11.5% fueling the balance of payment crisis to a boiling point. Instead of resolving the problem at its root, shortsighted measures were proposed such as tax amnesties and incentives for some US dollar savings without realising the basics – which is that investments are driven by the perception of trust, credibility, and policy consistency instead of ad hoc factors. People who believe in the efficacy of MMT for a small country with a non-international currency could be believing in the tooth fairy.
Meanwhile, some considerable effort was also made by the Government in the right direction, but it was not adequate. Someone may call it a half-hearted attempt to overcome the scale of the crisis we are facing. The Deregulation Commission, appointed by His Excellency the President, proposed to do some land reforms and improve ease of doing business. Further price controls have been removed, except the price control on the US dollar and interest rates.
With our inability to provide a clear direction, rating agencies questioned Sri Lanka’s debt sustainability multiple times and requested a credible plan which failed on many occasions.
The new Governor presented a six-month roadmap, but in my view, the damage of the MMT, the self-sufficient economic model, and industrial policy logic had already been done by then.
A discussion has always been up in the air regarding whether we should go to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). At the same time, the discussion was underway on whether we should re-profile and restructure our debt.
In simple terms, that was the summary of economic policy in 2021. We were optimistic that tourism numbers will pick up and it’s a relief that the numbers indicate a positive trend. However, higher tourism increases our import components as well. Expansions, maintenance, and consumption by tourists result in a fair share of imports, so expecting the tourism revival as a panacea for our forex shortages is just another shortsighted dream similar to the MMT.
In 2022, the outlook will remain the same or it will worsen unless we undertake economic reforms. Expecting a different result without reforms is mere wishful thinking.
Whether we go to the IMF or not, the economic reforms have to be the starting point. The Government should initiate the reform agenda without waiting for anyone else. However, an IMF programme (always with the agreement of the Government), would be more credible to our lenders and potential FDI partners. Our present situation is not credible to both foreign and domestic investors.
Below are a few suggestions we have to think through:
Establish independence of the CBSL and make sure that the exchange rate is competitive
Privatise loss-making state-owned enterprises and consolidate and privatise non-strategic SOE’s
A cash transfer system for poor people based on market prices to face the high cost of living during the reform period
A grand-scale deregulation of business regulations as per the report submitted to the President (by the Lalith Weerathunga and Krishan Balendra committee)
Lower tariff rates with Sri Lanka customs reforms to increase global trade and increase competitiveness
Freeze government sector recruitment and offer voluntary retirement schemes and minimise the government cadre
We have to provide a rapid response for this economic crisis without waiting until the last minute to come up with solutions.
The reality is we are already too late – not by months but by a few decades.
Rather than focusing on the official reserves position, we have to shift our gears towards reforms. No country ever overcame an economic crisis without any economic reforms.
The opinions expressed are the author’s own views. They may not necessarily reflect the views of the Advocata Institute or anyone affiliated with the institute.