DeepDive

Media coverage on The Role of Trade in Economic Recovery in Sri Lanka

GSP Plus vital for SL to fight competition – EU Ambassador

After 2010 Sri Lanka’s exports to the European Union (EU) have increased by 60% but half of it is through the Generalised Scheme of Preferences (GSP) plus, stated EU Ambassador to Sri Lanka Denis Chaibi, speaking at a virtual conference organised by Colombo-based think-tank Advocata Institute.

Vietnam increased by 400% and Bangladesh by 150% during the period from 2010 to 2019, thus to stay ahead of competition, GSP plus is significant for Sri Lanka, stated Chaibi. Ambassador further noted that retaining GSP Plus would give a positive image for Sri Lanka that it is committed to human rights obligations. “The EU market is competitive as it is a superpower in terms of product quality standards.

For a Sri Lankan exporter to export to the EU would give the exporter recognition in any other market as the EU only accepts products with certain standards. Sri Lanka is already in a forex crisis. Increasing exports is a way out of the current crises. COVID-19 has created a resilient supply chain but without preferential access it is difficult for Sri Lanka to increase its exports to EU markets.

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SL’s economic recovery led by trade

The Covid-19 pandemic has revealed the real weaknesses Sri Lanka had in terms of its economy for the past four decades.

With the foreign exchange shortage worsening day by day, many fear that the country will go back to the pre-1977 era of ration cards to purchase essential food items, as the importation of such goods will be impossible in the near months.

Sri Lanka needs economic reforms that will decide the fate of the country in the next few decades to come, and many experts say that reforms should start with the country’s protectionism trade that has not really evolved over the years.

Productivity for growth

Speaking at a webinar organised by the Advocata institute, its Chair – Academic Programme Dr. Sarath Rajapathirana said that Sri Lanka has failed to make any substantial reform for the economy, particularly on trade-side reforms, for the last 20 years.

He said trade is very important as it exposes the country to competition and among other areas such as the fiscal side, the budget, and having a proper monetary policy that avoids inflation and contributes to a more stable exchange rate, trade too needs a lot of work.

“Our imports are three times the value of exports, so we have been continuing a trade deficit, which is also accompanied by a current account deficit. These have to be addressed when talking about trade reform; we have to have the macroeconomic support for it,” he said.

He said more than the aggregates of imports and exports, the encouragement to productivity from having open trade or non-restricted trade is more important.

“If you don’t have strong growth in productivity, we have to keep on increasing the factors of production. It is difficult because we need to have more savings and less consumption. So the best way to get it done is to really have a system in which our reforms are going to immediately affect the positive side of our productivity growth,” he noted.

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Increased int’l trade participation key to achieving economic recovery, says top economist

As the national economy continues to face new challenges from multiple angles and their implications are being very much felt by businesses and masses, Dr. Rajapatirana called for the government to start by having in place a more streamlined tariff structure.

“First get rid of para tariffs fast. And then look to introduce a single uniform tariff,” asserted Dr. Rajapatirana while addressing a webinar hosted by the Advocata Institute, this week.

For Sri Lanka to embark on any efforts that would assist in the recovery of the national economy, Dr. Rajapatirana stressed it is essential for the relevant authorities to acknowledge the importance of international trade when charting the path for progress. 

He pointed out that Sri Lanka needs to get away from its protectionist mindset and the way to get about it is to first look at lowering the existing tariff.

“The existing para tariff hurts our competitiveness. This is one of the fundamental things we need to do,” said Dr. Rajapatirana.

He added that the government must also explore the option of introducing a uniform tariff of about 15 percent, which can be reduced over a period of time.

Dr. Rajapatirana opined that by bringing about the suggested changes, Sri Lanka would be signalling to the world that it is serious in wanting to achieve economic progress. 

Dr. Rajapatirana also pointed out that the country has not made any substantial economic reforms, especially on the trade side, in the last 20 years or so.

As the country continues to grapple with the COVID-19 pandemic along with the rest of the world, Dr. Rajapatirana warned that neglecting the economy would only further delay the recovery process. 

“We cannot think of economic recovery without really starting trade reforms. We are in a good driving seat to undertake the reforms since the government has two-thirds majority. 

We need to have the macrocosmic reforms that come from the monetary policy and the fiscal policy. Without that you don’t have the sort of dynamic stability that is needed to put in place a good reform programme,” he said.

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Sri Lanka international trade role in Advocata forum as monetary instability drive import controls

Colombo-based think tank Advocata Institute said it is hosting an online forum on ‘The Role of International Trade in Economic Recovery in Sri Lanka’, as the island is mired in the worst import controls since the 1970s after printing money.

Trade controls started during as money was printed to target an ‘output gap’ involving curbs on gold trading and vehicles and other items, escalated into full-scale import substitution, import bans and tightened from 2020.

Sri Lanka’s post-independent economic history is littered with administrations that tried to operate various economic plans without reforming a soft-pegged central bank with activist monetary policy.

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Online Discussion: Deep Dive "The Role of Trade in Economic Recovery in Sri Lanka"

The second Advocata Deep Dive discussion on "The Role of Trade in Economic Recovery in Sri Lanka” in partnership with the European Union in Sri Lanka and the Maldives was held on Aug 30th.

Prof. Prema-Chandra Athukorala (Emeritus Professor of Economics, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics, ANU), Dr. Sarath Rajapatirana (Chair, Academic Programme, Advocata Institute), H.E. Denis Chaibi (Ambassador, Delegation of the European Union to Sri Lanka and the Maldives) and Dr. Dayaratna Silva discuss (International Trade Economist | Former Sri Lankan Ambassador to the World Trade Organization) discuss "The Role of Trade in Economic Recovery in Sri Lanka”


You can also watch the full discussion here

Deep Dive 2.0 kickstarted with the primer by Dr. Sarath Rajapatirana discussing International Trade: From Theory to Policy: Sri Lanka in Perspective.

A brief overview of Sri Lanka's trade, trading partners and trade policies in relation to economic growth. In this video, we discuss the contribution of trade to a country's growth, Sri Lankan trade during the pandemic, import restrictions, and GSP+ and its effect on Sri Lanka's trade.

Low revenue growth, main reason for primary deficit – Advocata Chairman

Covered by Ceylon Today

“Post-independence Sri Lanka has continuously had a fiscal deficit, while it had a Primary Balance surplus only in 1954, 1955, 2017 and 2018,” stated Advocata Chairman Murtaza Jafferjee while speaking on Sri Lanka’s debt sustainability. 

However, the primary balance situation reversed in 2019 due to the Easter Sunday tragedy, and a broad primary deficit is expected in 2020 due to COVID-19 pandemic, Jafferjee cautioned. 

“Civil wars, insurgencies, populist election promises are some of the reasons for fiscal deficits to emerge. However, Sri Lanka’s high Primary deficit is due to low revenue in comparison to excessive spending. Twenty years ago, revenue formed 20% of GDP, which has been reduced to 13% currently. Relative to the rate of expansion of the economy, revenue did not keep up,” he noted.

He said, “Except for Bangladesh, all other countries in the region have higher revenue percentages to GDP than Sri Lanka. Meanwhile, except for India, regional countries like Vietnam, Malaysia, Bangladesh, Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, Cambodia all have had lower fiscal deficits than us according to 2018 data.” 

Jafferjee suggests fiscal consolidation as a solution to improve the government’s fiscal position and reduce debt to GDP. He suggested however that the government should implement this in a structured manner over a period of time. Size, pace, duration and the composition of fiscal adjustment should be done systematically as failure to do so could lead to economic disaster or political instability, explains Jafferjee.  

“In a country such as ours asking people to pay higher taxes all of a sudden may lead to lost political capital. The degree of adjustment is highly dependent on economic and political circumstances. In the short term, fiscal consolidation may lead to lower GDP growth. 

In periods like pandemic situations, higher fiscal consolidation could be disastrous. It would reduce aggregate demand, which in turn can lead to low tax revenue. “

Jafferjee further notes that the least distortionary tax measure could be a wealth tax, which Sri Lanka doesn’t currently possess. He noted that over the past decade our credit growth was higher than the money supply, and has also significantly outpaced nominal GDP growth, irrespective of whether it was a loose or contractionary economic policy. 

“Credit drives the economy, fund’s investments and the economy. Credit growth hasn’t boosted economic growth or nominal GDP. This could be due to the investment in real estate, leading to a spike in land prices.”

The Chairman noted that the expansion of credit was evident for over a decade across multiple sectors including loans and leases, which could have been used to buy real estate. He claimed that there were no taxes on land, despite Sri Lanka’s direct taxes being low. “Indirect taxation accounts for 75% of total tax revenue, which is highly regressive, meaning tax is applied uniformly, imposing a higher burden on low-income earners than high-income earners.

As per Central Bank data, real estate prices in the Colombo District have increased over 170% in the last ten years and 95% in the last five. It’s time that policymakers think of collecting property taxes excluding lower value ones,” noted Jafferjee.  

NEWS RELEASE: Eminent economists urge decisive action to prevent emerging debt crisis

NEWS RELEASE

Originally appeared in the Daily FT, Ceylon Today, Lanka Business Online and The Morning

The Advocata Institute DeepDive Series on "How can we improve Sri Lanka's Debt Sustainability?"

A panel of eminent economists urged that the Government take credible and decisive action to prevent a painful debt crisis in Sri Lanka. Although immediate debt payments can be met, to build credibility, a medium-term plan is required. This was also emphasised by Dr Nishan De Mel, Executive Director of Verite Research, who made the point that "We think that Sri Lanka does have flexibility, but the price of flexibility is credibility. If you cannot establish credibility, the flexibility erodes very quickly."

 The rating agency Moody's downgraded Sri Lanka's rating to Caa1 from B2 signaling issues with the country's debt sustainability. This year Sri Lanka's foreign debt service forecast is USD 4208.6 million. The central government debt to GDP ratio at present stands at about 86.8% with some estimates expecting the figure to increase.  

Prof Ricardo Hausmann from Harvard University said the more important measure is to look at the interest burden to tax revenue as opposed to the commonly cited debt to GDP ratio. "I think it's unfortunate that people talk about debt to GDP ratio, instead they should be talking about interest burden to tax revenue ratio. Japan has a debt to GDP ratio of 230%, and it's all contracted at zero interest rate. 230% at zero interest rate, you have to raise zero taxes to pay for that. 86% debt at 7% interest rate, you're talking about almost 6% of GDP in interest burden compared to Japan that has to pay zero" Sri Lanka has one of the worst interest burdens to tax revenue measures in the world according to Professor Hausmann. 

Prof Mick Moore, who has done work on Sri Lankan taxation systems explained that the situation has worsened due to a revenue problem and urged the need for a collective realisation of the necessity of higher taxation to meet debt servicing requirements. He mentioned that "If there is going to be a social contract drawn, built up, it's going to have to be a social contract around the crisis. If we do not do something about tax-raising, like Prof Hausmann said, the big bad wolf [of the debt crisis] is going to come."

These views were expressed at the event "Deep Dive", organised by the Advocata Institute that aims to bring focus on Sri Lanka's biggest policy challenges. The event was moderated by Dr Roshan Perera, Former Director Risk Management Department of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, and Aneetha Warusavitarana, Research Manager, Advocata Institute. As a precursor to the event, Advocata released a primer on debt sustainability with the aim of helping Sri Lankans understand the topic.  

The recording of the discussion can be found at https://www.advocata.org/ to get a comprehensive understanding of debt sustainability and how it affects Sri Lanka's economy and livelihoods of all Sri Lankans.

Advocata is an independent policy think tank based in Colombo, Sri Lanka. We conduct research, provide commentary and hold events to promote sound policy ideas compatible with a free society in Sri Lanka. Visit advocata.org for more information.    

Advocata spokespersons are available for live and pre-recorded broadcast interviews via 077 621 6788

CONTACT:

Yasodhara Kariyawasam

Communications Manager, Advocata Institute

Email: yasodhara@advocata.org


Online Discussion: How Can We Improve Sri Lanka's Debt Sustainability?

ONLINE DISCUSSION by Advocata Institute featuring Prof. Ricardo Hausmann (Director Growth Lab, Harvard University's Center for International Development), Prof. Mick Moore (Political Economist, Founding CEO & Senior Fellow, International Centre for Tax and Development, Professorial Fellow, Institute of Development Studies), Dr. Nishan De Mel, (Economist, Executive Director, Verité Research). The Panel was moderated by Dr.Roshan Perera (Economist, Former Director Risk Management Department of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka and co-moderated by Aneetha Warusavitarana (Research Manager, Advocata Institute).

To watch Murtaza Jaffarjee’s Three-part Primers on Debt Sustainability, Fiscal Performance and Economic Growth.

To watch the video on Youtube

Deep Dive EP 1. 3 : How Can We Improve Debt Sustainability in Sri Lanka | A Primer on Economic Growth

The Advocata Institute launched its latest public policy discussion series 'DeepDive'. This series commenced with several discussions on the topic "How can we improve Sri Lanka's Debt Sustainability?".

The discussion series kickstarted with three-part primers by Mr. Murtaza Jafferjee, Chairman of the Advocata Institute.

Print media partner - Daily FT

This is the final part of a three-part primer.

Click here to access the presentation by Mr. Murtaza Jafferjee

To watch the Primer on Debt Sustainability

To watch the Primer on Fiscal Performance

Watch this video on Youtube 





Deep Dive EP 1. 2 : How Can We Improve Debt Sustainability in Sri Lanka | A Primer on Fiscal Performance

The Advocata Institute launches its latest public policy discussion series ‘DeepDive’. This series commences with several discussions on the topic “How can we improve Sri Lanka's Debt Sustainability?”.

The discussion series kickstarted with three-part primers by Mr. Murtaza Jafferjee, Chairman of the Advocata Institute.

This is the second part of a three-part primer.

Print media partner - Daily FT

Click here to access the presentation by Mr. Murtaza Jafferjee

To watch the Primer on Debt Sustainability

To access the Primer on Economic Growth

Watch this video on Youtube 





Deep Dive EP 1. 1 : How Can We Improve Debt Sustainability in Sri Lanka | A Primer on Debt in Sri Lanka

The Advocata Institute launches its latest public policy discussion series ‘DeepDive’. This series commences with several discussions on the topic “How can we improve Sri Lanka's Debt Sustainability?”.

The discussion series kickstarts with a primer on debt sustainability, presented by Mr. Murtaza Jafferjee, Chairman of the Advocata Institute. This is the first part of a three-part primer, focusing on Sri Lanka's debt sustainability.

Print media partner - Daily FT

To access the presentation by Mr. Murtaza Jafferjee

To access the Updated presentation on Debt Sustainability

To access the second Primer on Fiscal Performance

To access the third Primer on Economic Growth

Watch this video on Youtube