Sri Lanka needs stable liberal policies, property rights, to get export oriented FDI: economist

ECONOMYNEXT - Sri Lanka should have a stable liberal policy framework with free trade and strong property rights to draw foreign direct investors who will build East Asian-style global production networks, a top trade economist has said.

To attract foreign investors into merchandise exports, concurrent trade and investment liberalisation is needed, Prema-Chandra Athukorala, professor of economics at Australia National University's Crawford School of Public Policy, said in Colombo.

Read the entire article on Economy Next 

FDI lowest in 10 years

Political stability and policy consistency were imperative to attract foreign investments, an economist said.
Professor Prema-Chandra Athukorala, Professor of Economics, Australian National University, speaking at a function in Colombo Thursday said Sri Lanka foreign direct investments (FDI)inflows to Sri Lanka were the lowest on record last year .
Total FDI receipts last year, excluding foreign loans, amounted to US$ 681 million, down from the previous year's (2014) figure of $ 894 million (excluding foreign loans). Last year Sri Lanka held two major elections, the Presidential Election on 8 January, 2015 and the Parliamentary Election of 17 August, 2015.


Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) Governor Dr. Indrajit Coomaraswamy said earlier that FDI in the first half (1H) of the year was poor, but was looking up in the 2H of the year. According to CBSL, FDI in the first five months of the year, including foreign loans, amounted to a mere $ 164.5 million, down 52.5% year-on-year compared to last year's commensurate figure of $ 346.4 million.
The Sri Lanka's Board of Investment signed agreements for foreign direct investments worth an estimated 1.6 billion US dollars in 2015, up slightly from last year, according to the island's investment promotion agency.
When this reporter asked Athukorala whether it's possible to have policy consistency in a democracy like Sri Lanka, where the island has to go to the polls once in five years, Athukorala said that it was possible, and gave as examples the island's free trade zones (FTZs) established after 1977, as an example of bipartisanship, where no steps have been taken to dismantle FTZs despite 40 years after their establishment, by successive governments.


FTZs, with the concessions offered to investors, are conduits to attract foreign investments.
Athukorala further said that studies have shown that FTZs, and not free trade agreements (FTAs), boost exports. The 'Achilles' Heel' in FTAs is their subtle rules of origin (ROO), he said. Athukorala said that he spoke to a joss sticks manufacturer at Mawanella the other day.
This manufacturer said that he cannot export joss sticks to India by trying to avail himself of the concessions to which exporters are reportedly entitled to exporters under the existing Indo-Lanka Free Trade Agreement (ILFTA) because of India's stringent ROO. A key component in the manufacture of joss sticks disqualifies this manufacturer from exporting to India under the ILFTA duty concessionary umbrella.

Read the entire article on Ceylon Today 

All it takes is Barber’s skills – Expert

The story that highly honed skills are required for manufacture of high value exports such as computers is a myth, an economist said.


Professor Prema-Chandra Athukorala, Professor of Economics, Australian National University, speaking at a function in Colombo on Thursday (18 August) said that in 1968, when Singapore, with an unemployment rate of 15%, opened up its economy for electronics investments, the country's Finance Minister had said... ...that the skills required for a woman engaging in computer manufacture, should be akin to that of a barber, to do the job.


And Singapore has proved it by being a computer hub today. "In a labour abundant country, Singapore has become one of the richest countries," said Athukorala. Singapore has proved that this so called deficiency of a "skills barrier" is a myth, he said.
He said that similarly, what Sri Lanka needs to grow its economy is not services such as tourism, but manufacturing. Only manufacturing can absorb unskilled workers and the island has a large pool of unskilled labour, said Athukorala.
The BoI is not going in the hinterland to tap them for employment potential and as a result many companies are paying incentives to their workers to recruit labour, he said. Though they talk of the lack of human capital in the island, manufacturers don't believe that lie, said Athukorala.


Nonetheless, there is a company in the outskirts servicing the global automotive industry, which has an annual turnover of US$ 45 million, whilst employing a thousand, he said. There is another company at Badalgama in the Wayamba Province which manufactures electronic sensors, while providing employment to 600, said Athukorala.
Industrialization is the pivot for employment generation and thereby poverty reduction, he said. An example is China which has reduced poverty from 40% to 9% through industrialization, he said. Sixty eight per cent of the world production comes from developing countries, he said.


Athukorale said that while China is involved in labour intensive electronic assembly industries, Sri Lanka's labour was better than that in Thailand, but because the latter has ventured in to high tech manufacture, their labour grade per capita annual income is US$ 500 per capita per mensem, whereas the island's lowly garment sector worker earns a mere $ 100.
He said that though Sri Lanka lost large electronic giants such as Harris Corporation and Microsoft due to the July 1983 disturbances, it's still home to middle level electronics firms which employ an average of 400 employees each in their workplaces, providing a total employment of 20,000. Sri Lanka's trade regime is comparable to that of Malaysia but what is needed is the rationalization of tariffs, said Athukorala. The seminar was organized by Advocata Institute, a local think tank. 

Read The article on Ceylon Today 

 

Deshal de Mel delivers lecture on What's wrong with the Sri Lankan economy

Deshal de Mel delivering the lecture organized by Advocata Institute

Deshal de Mel delivering the lecture organized by Advocata Institute

Senior economist at Hayleys Group, Deshal de Mel gave the inaugural lecture on a public lecture series organized by Advocata Institute last month.

A crowd of more than 200 people attended the lecture which concluded with an engaging Q&A session moderated by  Shiran Fernando,  an economist attached to Frontier Research. 

Delivering the lecture, Deshal said that the biggest risk to the Sri Lankan economy is the ability to meet the external debt repayments. Until about 2005, Sri Lanka had very easy access to long term finance said Deshal, who went on to explain that with the elevation of the country to a middle income status country, Sri Lanka lost access to this low-interest rate loans that allowed the government to maintain a very large government in terms of employees, and activities in the economy as well as accumulate a huge amount of debt.

Continuous deficits that the government keep running and the accumulated debt is one of the key reasons for macroeconomic instability explained Deshal.  High government borrowing crowds out the private investment and vulnerable to episodes of monetary expansion leading to inflation the economist said.   

"Big Government" policies including the maintaining of loss-making state enterprises, large public sector and targeted subsidies and transfers have all resulted in the deficit that the government tries to bridge by borrowing and indirect taxation, which creates further distortions according to Deshal de Mel.

The large government is not just fiscally not affordable, but also is a consumer of scarce resources explained the economist.  "The state owns large quantum of land, and employs about 17% of the entire labour force" all consuming economic resources whilst the 245 odd State owned enterprises employs a further 220,000 people. 



Deshal believes that there is a role for the government in addressing wealth inequalities resulting from unequal opportunities and for state intervention when markets fail through smart unobtrusive regulation. However, he says that the big government policies have not helped in sectors where state intervention is generally accepted, for example in Education where outcomes indicate that only around 50% of students pass science related subjects.

Resources tied up in unproductive sectors such as Agriculture  represents another problem Deshal explained. The Agricultural sector accounts for a massive 30% of labour force, but only accounts for 9% of GDP.  The protectionist policies with the stated aim of 'protect' farmers has resulted in resources being tied up in lower value domestic agriculture instead of utilizing the full resource pool of agricultural land, farmers and other resources into global value chains and higher value agriculture.

Sri Lanka has also failed to attract export oriented Foreign Direct Investment (FDIs) making use of it's strategic location Deshal said and emphasized on a proactive approach to attracting FDIs such as targeting multinationals with operations in southern India to set up Shop in Sri Lanka.

In order to fix the Sri Lankan economy, Deshal recommends that the first thing to do is to rationalize government expenditure. Cutting back on size, and particularly state owned enterprises. Enhancing government revenue through simplification of taxes and relying on direct taxes.  He also emphasize the need to focus on education, ensuring an environment of more private participation in the supply of education and gradually decreasing trade and domestic protectionism as possible ways of remedying the problems in the Sri Lankan economy.

While acknowledging the political realities and difficulties in bringing about economic reform, Deshal said that a possible starting point is reforming State Owned Enterprises, where there is increasing awareness of it's ill-effects. 

Advocata's research report on SOEs are found on our research section.  Advocata Institute organizes monthly lectures focused on the broad theme of 'fixing the Sri Lankan economy'. 

full slide deck from the lecture is available below.   See more articles on the event .  Deshal was speaking in his private capacity as an economist. 

Sunday Leader on Deshal's lecture : High govt borrowing crowding out private investment

From the Sunday Leader

Continuous high deficits and cumulative public debt has been one of the driving factors behind the Indian Ocean Island economy’s macroeconomic volatility is adversely affecting the investment climate, one of Sri Lanka’s budding economist said recently.

“High government borrowing levels influence higher interest rates, crowding out private investment. Recent BoP (Balance of payment) weakness has been largely influenced by external debt repayments with implications for the depreciation of the Sri Lankan Rupee. At other times fiscal expansion drives imports, contributing to BoP stress and depreciation of the Rupee. Episodes of inflation in the past were influenced by then Central Bank’s accommodative monetary policy to ease stress on government debt servicing,” said Senior Economist Deshal De Mel at a public forum.

Read article in full.

Advocata Report on SOEs makes an impact at Chamber event

Photo Courtesy Kithmina Hewage 

Photo Courtesy Kithmina Hewage 

From Dailymirror.lk:

According to the minister, a top corporate sector CEO has also been appointed to lead the Public Enterprise Board but fell short of disclosing who the official was. The minister said he was in the audience leaving the participants to guess.

According to Advocata, an independent policy think tank, 55 strategically important SoEs in Sri Lanka have made a cumulative loss of Rs.636 billion during 2006 and 2015.  The cumulative profit of the profitable SoEs during the same period has been Rs.530 billion, excluding the Employees’ Trust Fund.  The statement by the minister suggests that the government is ready to go the whole hog in privatizing both the strategic as well as non-strategic SoEs despite the immense political risk forthcoming.  Speaking at the final session under the theme titled, ‘The Future of Public Enterprises’ Samarawickrama said the government had reached the final leg of entering into a public-private partnership (PPP) to restructure the loss-making national carrier, SriLankan Airlines but did not disclose the party involved.

Meanwhile, Chief Opposition Whip and Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna Leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake said if the government could take over the liabilities of SriLankan Airlines prior to the sale of the carrier to a private party, they should also be able to take over the assets and run the airline. 

From EconomyNext.com

SOEs were used to give off-budget subsidies and they borrowed from banks, pushing up interest rates and depriving funds and raising the borrowing costs of small enterprises.

Although some SOEs made profits, they do not reflect the returns for the investments made. Anushka Wijesinghe, Chief Economist at the Ceylon Chamber of Commerce, said that a report by Advocata, an independent think tank, found that from 2006 to 2015 it cost taxpayers Rs640 billion.  

A part of the losses made by SOEs were financed by the budget. 

"That means the government has to find tax revenues. Or else, the government has to borrow the money domestically or from abroad. 

"These debts also have to be repaid by the people through future taxes. One way or the other the people have to bear the financial cost of these losses."

Advocata Institute's Report on SOEs is available in our research section.

On LBO : Deshal explains what's wrong with Sri Lanka's economy

Aug 01, 2016 (LBO) – Sri Lanka’s most urgent economic risk is external debt sustainability and it has been one driving factor behind macroeconomic volatility in the country, a young economist said.

Deshal de Mel delivering a public lecture hosted by the think tank Advocata Institute said the legacy of access to long term concessional debt and easy repayment schemes eventually enabled the country to build up a large public sector and debt burden.

“Post 2007 requirement to tap into global capital markets due to less access to concessional borrowings is one major reason,” de Mel said.

“Shorter repayment tenors and higher rates of interest – makes it essential to channel borrowings into remunerative investments.”

De Mel said high government borrowing levels influenced higher interest rates and crowded out private investment.

He said recent balance of payments weakness has been largely influenced by external debt repayments with implications for rupee depreciation.

“At other times fiscal expansion drives imports, contributing to Balance of Payments stress and rupee depreciation,” Mel said.

“Episodes of inflation in the past influenced by Central Bank’s accommodative monetary policy to ease government debt servicing.”

Financing the current deficit requires high levels of indirect taxation and it also affects consumer freedom and high import taxes restrict domestic competition.

As per statistics, government revenue has improved in first half of 2016 but sustained improvement needs a shift to direct taxes from regressive indirect taxes, he said

More on Lanka Business Online

 

Advocata Radio EP 1 - Reuben Abraham on ideas for Urbanization in Sri Lanka

Advocata Radio EP 1 -  Reuben Abraham on ideas for Urbanization in Sri Lanka

Our first podcast on Policy,  Reuben Abraham offers insights on Urbanization

Privatization & Public Private Partnerships Of SOEs In Sri Lanka

Arundathie Abeysinghe writes on Colombo Telegraph on SOEs In Sri Lanka,

In many Asian countries including Sri Lanka State-owned Enterprises (SOE) continue to control vast swaths of national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) with the state as their biggest share holder. As such, they control about 1/3 of total enterprise assets and SOEs are larger than their non-SOE peers. There is a great variety among Sri Lankan SOEs. Meanwhile, SOEs in the sectors that are monopolized by the state yield good income and profitability, while those that are not supported by the state record poor performance. To better understand the profitability of Sri Lankan SOEs, a deeper analysis should be done by looking into individual sectors.

Shares of SOEs in different sectors are diverse. The majority of SOE profits are contributed by sectors that are monopolized by them, whereas, sectors which are dominated by non-SOEs are major sources of non-SOE profits. The majority of the SOE profits are contributed by state-monopolized sectors and such SOEs record a respectable rate of return.  At the same time, profitability of SOEs in sectors with less state domination is much poorer.

According to the Treasury Annual Report 2014, at present Sri Lanka possesses 245 State Owned Enterprises (SOEs), of which 55 have been identified by the General Treasury as strategically important SOBEs under the clusters of Banking and Finance, Insurance, Energy, Ports, Water, Aviation, Commuter Transport, Construction, Livestock, Plantation, Non Renewable Resources, Lotteries, Marketing & Distribution, Health and Media.

Read The entire article on Colombo Telegraph

Privatisation popular according to an online Poll

An online poll conducted by roar.lk amongst it’s readers indicates, that privatisation remains a popular option with an overwhelming majority saying that Sri Lanka cannot move forward without at least some form of privatisation.


Readers of the website however tend to be from the more urbane, english-speaking part of the population and unlikely to be representative of the country in general.  

 

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During the panel discussion at our event on State Enterprise reform in Sri Lanka,  panelists discussed the reasons for why the general public seems somewhat against privatisation.  

 

National press coverage for Advocata Institute’s Launch and Report on SOEs

Advocata Institute’s launch event as well as the report on “The State of State Enterprises in Sri Lanka”, has been receiving national press coverage,  with several national daily and weekend newspapers carrying articles.

"The Advocata Institute is a new think tank formed by a group of Sri Lankans with an interest in promoting sound, liberal, economic policy. Advocata will publish reports on key areas for reform."   - Daily News
"The institute will be dedicated to economic development through free-markets and will promote sound policy ideas compatible with a free society in Sri Lanka, its officials said."      - Lanka Business Online
"In the last 10 years, six state enterprises - Ceylon Petroleum Corporation, Ceylon Electricity Board, SriLankan Airlines, Mihin Air and Sri Lanka Transport Board - lost Rs605 billion, a report compiled by Advocata Institute, a think tank focusing on economic freedom, showed" - Economy Next
"'So yes I would use the P (Privatization) without feeling embarresd about it' Prof. Razeen Sally said at the launching ceremony of the free market think tank "The Advocata Institute" last Thursday evening." - Ceylon Today
"Advocata, an independent policy think tank based in Colombo, is urging the government and the politicians to engage in an open discussion that at least keeps privatisation in the mix of policy options." - Sunday Times
"The opinion polls jointly conducted by the Business Times and the Research Consultancy Bureau under the BT-RCB tag came into focus at the launch of Advocata, an independent policy think tank, in Colombo on Thursday." - Sunday Times
"Over the next six months, the debt-ridden national carrier SriLankan Airlines is scheduled to go through a major restructuring process that will, hopefully, pave the way to implement a sustainable business model." - Sunday Observer
"The findings of a new Colombo-based think tank show that the absence of crucial financial details of most of the state-owned enterprises (SoEs) in the public domain is a major obstacle holding them accountable to the people, whose funds are invested in them." - Daily Mirror
"Further the Advocata Institute highlighted that although there are 245 State Owned Enterprises in the country, the General Treasury has summarized the financial information of only 55 Enterprises that are strategically important." - Daily News
"As Sri Lanka plans to draw inspiration from the Singapore-styled Temasek Holdings in managing the continuously loss-making state-owned-enterprises (SOE), the island nation should look to place only selected SOEs in the event such a state-owned investment company is set up and not all of them, a top Economist has advocated." - The Nation
"'The institute will be dedicated to economic development through free-markets and will promote sound policy ideas compatible with a free society in Sri Lanka,' Wickramaratne said at the launch of Advocata Institute, a new independent policy think tank based in Colombo, and its report on SOEs." - The Island 
"It is worth taking a look at exactly how our SOEs have been performing over the years. The Advocata Institute., a recently established independent policy think tank, was kind enough to share with us its latest findings in this regard." - Roar.lk

Opinion - Sri Lankan Airlines, sour or to sour?

J. Lorenz writes on Lanka Business Online, about Sri Lankan Airlines:

"Although the government inherited a profitable business in 2008 they successfully managed to run it into the ground due to mismanagement and corruption. The two explanations available are the Jensen and Meckling (1976) theory of ‘principal-agent problem’ and the free-rider problem, both of which concern self-seeking individuals, as discussed at the launch of Advocata Institute at the Lakshman Kadirgamar Institute earlier this month.

Managers of state owned firms are aware that salaries would be paid regardless of performance of the company hence motivation to perform is taken away thereby embodying the free-rider problem. Further, tax-payers would continue to pump money into failing SOEs whereas a private company would pump their own money into the business risking everything, hence increasing the commitment to perform well. The budget funds given to SOEs in 2014 is equivalent to every household paying 24100 rupees to keep SOEs afloat. This is while around 40% of Sri Lanka’s households earn less than 24000 rupees a month"

Read the entire article on LBO

Advocata Institute Launched in Colombo

Advocata Institute was launched yesterday with the release of our inaugural report titled “The State of State Enterprises”.  The event was held at the Lakshman Kadirgamar Institute Auditorium in Colombo and was attended by high ranking public officials, deputy ministers, academics and invitees. Deputy Minister Wickramaratne was presented with the inaugural copy of the report.
 

The event was keynoted  by Prof. Rohan Samarajiva, an advisor to Advocata and included speeches by Advocata COO Dhananath Fernando and Prof Razeen Sally.  Prof Samarajiva offered potential ideas for the state enterprise reform and spoke about his experience as a regulator during what was hailed as the successful part-privatisation of Sri Lanka Telecom.

Prof Razeen Sally speaking about the importance of a think tank working on issues related to economic freedom said, that much needed to be done in Sri Lanka to stem the tide of reversing liberalisation that the country has experienced in recent years.

The event also  featured a panel discussion that included the chief guest of the evening Deputy Minister of Public Enterprise Development, Eran Wickramaratne,  Advocata fellow Ravi Ratnasabapathy, as well as Prof Rohan Samarajiva and Prof Razeen Sally.   

The panel discussed reform ideas, including the holding company model after successes in the Singapore Temasek holdings. Several commentators in the panel discussed however the need for privatisation to be brought back into the public conscious as an ultimate solution.  Deputy Minister insisted that the government is looking at reforms on an industry-by-industry and case-by-case basis.

Dhananath fernando, the chief operating officer of Advocata Institute said that Advocata hopes to be an independent voice advocating liberal economic ideas based on sound research.


Please follow us on Facebook, Twitter and YouTube for more updates on the event.